REMEMBRANCE OF THINGS PAST AND PRESENT

                          By Sy Schechtman

                                 

         Approximately25 yearsago,in 1981 I believe,   adebatewas published in CommentaryMagazine about the current status of the two mostpowerful world economies---the United States and Japan.  Then, as now, the United States was the most powerful. But the trend, and momentum,  was definitely on the side of the up and coming Japaneseeconomic juggernaut.  That was the time when the Japanese were very cash richand investing   profligatelyinreal estate, as buying up Rockefeller Centerin the heart of New York,andalso paying very substantialsums for classic western art.  This was the time that their increasing market sharein automobilesales and  electronicsamong other thingsmade them seem invincible economically too.  Buttheirevident successin gaining foreign market share wasthe result of distorted economics, artificiallysellingat little of no profitabroad, and keeping prices high in the Japanesehome market.The sardonic, somewhat grim joke was that native Japanesecame to the United Statestobuy high quality Japanese camerasand then sold them back in Japan  at a profit!  (Also the strong US dollar then helpedforeignproducts compete in our country).

         Besides their lopsidedly buoyant economyto contend with was our “buoyant” crime rate, especially murder,and the generallyneatand orderly Japanese environment; not the messy place that most urban   areas in the United States were.  

No! America’s day in the shining sun of number one super power status was about over, and even the editor of the Wall Street Journal,who was still adamantly pro capitalist, free marketUnited States, failed to convince faint hearted, despairingme.  The admiring, pro Japanese spokesman  seemedmost convincing, and as the supposedGoliath of new industryin the FarEaststarted to slowlydiminishin strength we all felt confident that this was only an inevitable, very transient stumble;which has now continuedfor about 25 years.!      

         The Dow Jones Averagein 1981-82was around800-825.Todayit isnear all time highs, around 11,000.    The major Japanesestock indexis about half the value of   its1982 level.

 

         Now, of course, the tantalizing question;can historyrepeat itself?The United States is stillthe super power, not the “paper tiger” laughed at in the early eighties --Reagan corrected that image—butthere aremanyjeremiadsaboutour Iraq venture and the large the large public debt partially resulting from this has been a very worrisome thing,and there have evidentlybeen civil rights incursionsin our zeal to preempt more terroristviolence in our midst, and in general our countryhas now become theloathsome aggressorin many people’s opinion.Amongothers  British historianNiall Fergusonhas weighed in with the warningaboutdebt,claiming in his bookEmpirethat the once mightyBritishEmpirecollapsed eventuallynot because ofmilitaryweaknessbut because of growing insolvency due to foreign debt, and warned that we couldbe in the same bind sometime soon. as nations refuse to lend us money because of our seemingly soaring debt. (Ferguson generally supports Bush’s foreignpolicynotwithstanding).And, beyond this is the alarming right leaning growth of the fundamentalist Christian evangelicals, whom Kevin Philips thinks are ever stronger  in the Bushregime and who don’t believeat all in the separation of churchand statein our predominantly Christiannation.But basicallythe true unrest is, of course, the conduct of thewar in Iraq, which obviously  has notbeen going well at all.    Beyondthe now academic conjecture ofweapons of mass destruction(WMD)andthe possible duplicityabout them   is the great dissatisfaction of the present conduct of the war,which now seems on the verge of possible civil war.

         The great disconnect,even among Bush supporters,inwhich camp I am stillrather unhappily in,is the obviousfactthat not enoughtroopsare theretocompletely controlthesituation. And the proper planning to implement the transition from overt war and invasion toadequate stability and security.   Thus the initial lootingand destruction of keyinstallations  of great valuestrategically andfor civilian usewent unchecked.  Oil pipelines, electric powerplants and transmission linesand many militaryweapons storagesiteswere looted and destroyed, as was the Iraqi Museum in Baghdad, a site ofgreat historic and cultural importance.   To all this Bush has adamantly insisted that “my generals have never askedfor more troops, and if they did I would certainly send them”.   All the while looking the camera right in the eye,  the epitomeof sincere, simplestrivinghonesty.   No one, fortunately,had the tact at these awkward  moments in leadershipfallibility to askwhere these additional troops could be obtainedas our military seems already over committedin variouskey placesworld wide, and also in the face of now retiredGeneral Shinseki,the army Chief of Staff immediately before the start of the Iraqiwar,who stated flat out that we would needat least a quarterof a million troops to adequately controlthe situationboth in war and its crucial aftermath.  (We havea comparative paltry 150,000 there now).

         Indeed, not unexpectedly, many moderateprior supportersof the Iraqi invasionareoptingout,at least in the sense of supportingBush’s conduct of the war.  His approval  ratingsare way down, probablythe lowest ever of any president.  Butthe memory of the Vietnamdebacle is stillalive and well,     wherepublic support for the war at homeerodedeven as we were beginning towinon the military front.   But the last Tet offensive by the VietCongwasreally a last  gaspeffort, as the leader, General Gap, conceded later,saying thatwhile they were on the verge of losing on the battlefield  they won the battleof public opinionin the American press, forpeople became too discouragedthatthe violenceseemed to be escalating,with the American readershipnot discerning that thisTet offensive was, in fact, a last gaspevent.   Indeed, thirty yearsbefore we had the lastgaspGerman offensein the Battle of the Bulge, which cameperilouslyclose to succeeding and prolongingthe war,   as the over confidentAllied forcesdid notconceivethat the German forces could still mount such  a counter offensive,which resulted in many lost alliedtroops,much larger than immediatelyreported,since only official press handoutswere availablethen,and not thedetailedembeddedreportersanecdotal, inferentialand many timescontradictory, and discouragingaccountswe are flooded with today,and which were so effective in discouragingus in Vietnam   But as indicated above,the memory of thepremature withdrawal  fromVietnamisfresh enoughto precludethe same mistakencourse now.

         So, canwe rightour apparentslideinto the doghouse of universalpublic opinionand be once again the envied and respected super power as before?   Most certainly!  Primarily becausewe ourselvesare notdepressed  ordespondent---remember the famous “malaise”that Jimmy Cartermoaned about?   We certainly are unhappyaboutIraqbutpublic confidencein the countryis strongas witnessedby the all time highs in the stock averages---even in the faceof the currentdebacle  at General Motors!  Our economyis stillthe most productive in the world, inflation is low, as is unemployment. (And70% of our people are home owners!). And our relatively positive dilemmais the illegal alienssituation where millions of poor people are constantly voting with their feet to come this country,and earn considerablymorethenat homeeven though much lower than ouraveragenational wage.

         Our national age is much lower than moribund  France, Germany and Italy,andthe formerly high flying Japanese.    And the seeminglydynamicChineseare beset with the internal instabilityoffree market capitalismandtotalitarianpolitics, a probable collision coursethat willmostprobably impedetheir future economicexpansion.  Wisely,   foronce!,President Bushhas just returned from a state visittoIndia, the otherdynamicallygrowingentityin Asia,  aftersigning a landmarkagreementto share nuclear reactors, fuel and expertise with this energy starved country.   We arethus in Asiastarting to align ourselveswithaprogressive/backward ferment of a country ---India—whichis stillnurturedin the bonds of Hinduism,that marvelous technicolorpaganreligionof many many mostly benign gods and goddesses,where manywestern

dignitaries have been honoredwith quasi sainthood  and great respect.    Not a trace of militantHinduismor Buddhism;noconceptof HinduJihador70compliantvirginsto rewardHindusuicidebombers.   But alsoa strivingthrivingyounger generationof Indian youth  making great technologic strides in modernscienceandtelecommunication,alreadydeepinto the art and skillsof our modernera;not like the   modern barbariansof Islam,whosegreatestmodern creationis still the suicidebomber,whosegreatest productivityisthe ratioof how many non Moslemskilledperone suicide bomber.

         But here, immediately on the home front,we must accelerateourmediaproduction-----and FIREDONALDRUMSFELD!!     The message to ourintractablystubbornpresident   is that loyaltyis notnecessarilya politicalhallmarkof integrity; just becauseyou never vetoed a billis not going to be your shining legacy,so firingRumsfeldwillnottarnish yourimage as a compassionateconservative,but as an alertleader   whoonce again has been “misunderestimated”.   Thistime by admitting some of the planningwasbelowthe mark.  This will helpimmeasurablywith public opinion; and the fact that the Democratsstill don’thaveclueas to how to proceed.

Their attacks and threats of censure are like shooting themselvesin the foot.  

         Unless, of course,there is somesort of ugly “smoking gun”  soon to emerge!